Much of the dust has settled since Sunday’s
elections. The final results are:
|
|
2008 (75.3%)
|
2004 (75.6%)
|
|
Party
|
Seats/350
|
Votes
|
%
|
Seats
|
Votes
|
%
|
|
PSOE*
Socialist
|
169
|
11,064,524
|
43.64
|
164
|
11,026,163
|
42.59
|
|
PP*
Conservative
|
153
|
10,169,973
|
40.11
|
148
|
9,763,144
|
37.71
|
|
CiU*
Centre-right Catalan Nationalist
|
11
|
774,317
|
3.05
|
10
|
835,471
|
3.23
|
|
EAJ-PNV
Centre-right Basque Nationalist
|
6
|
303,246
|
1.20
|
7
|
420,980
|
1.63
|
|
ERC
Left Catalan separatist
|
3
|
296,473
|
1.17
|
8
|
652,196
|
2.52
|
|
IU
Communist /Green coalition
|
2
|
963,040
|
3.80
|
5
|
1,284,081
|
4.96
|
|
BNG
Left Galician Nationalist
|
2
|
209,042
|
0.82
|
2
|
208,688
|
0.81
|
|
CC-PNC
Canarian party
|
2
|
164,255
|
0.65
|
3
|
235,221
|
0.91
|
|
UPyD**
|
1
|
303,535
|
1.20
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Na-Bai
Left Navarre Nationalist
|
1
|
62,073
|
0.24
|
1
|
61,045
|
0.24
|
*Pending count of overseas votes.
One seat may change from CiU to PP and one from PSOE to PP.
**A new party, centre-left and anti-nationalist.
The main difference is in the rise of a
two-party system; PSOE and PP have each gained five seats, allowing the PP, which
clearly has lost, to claim its best result ever. The big losers are without
doubt the United Left (IU) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), both of which
have fallen below the threshold of five seats that are necessary to have a
separate group in the Parliament with access to money and group speaking
rights; there is a mixed group for the odds and ends but it is not quite the same
thing.
The two Catalan parties together have their
lowest representation ever and the Basque left separatist party EA has lost its
only deputy. IU has lost badly; it had been making noises about insisting on a
ministry as its price for keeping Zapatero in the Moncloa and now its leader
has resigned. ERC also had hoped to be in a position of influence but has crashed
spectacularly. It did well for special reasons last time and its failure has
had a side-effect in Catalonia, where its leader in the Catalan government has
resigned his ministry to spend more time with his party and in particular to challenge
its leader Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira, who has finally noticed what I
have been saying for a long time (and more
than once), namely that ERC is in a ‘state of political adolescence’. Zapatero
has several options and needs no formal agreement or coalition, but his options
with the Catalan and Basque nationalists are limited because the Socialists in
those areas, in government in Catalonia and in opposition in the Basque
Country, are opposing the Nationalists. The electoral system distorted the
result. The IU leader pointed out that with almost 4% of the votes (his party’s
worst result ever) he has less than 1% of the seats; Rosa Díez, who won a seat
for UPyD in Madrid, has pointed out that she got more votes than the PNV, who
won six seats. Nevertheless, the distortion is far less than what is produced
in Britain, where a third of the votes gives a hefty parliamentary majority. (A
truly proportional result in Spain would have been: PSOE: 160, PP 147, IU 14,
CiU 11, PNV 4, ERC 4, UPyD 4, BNG 3, CC 2, Na-Bai 0). Franco’s old party the FE
de las JONS got 1557 votes in Catalonia, four down from its 2004 total.
Although there are signs that things may be changing, there is still nothing
like the British BNP or French National Front in Spain.
The state of the PP is uncertain; Mariano
Rajoy, a John Major figure who was appointed as his successor by Aznar and
accepted without question by the party, has now lost two elections, and even if
they say that the last election was stolen there can be no doubt that the PP’s
strategy of increasing tension has failed this time; his future is in doubt
after losing one an election that he went into with an absolute majority and
then this second one. Despite what they said though, the defeat is no real surprise.
At the very beginning of the campaign there was a spectacular bust-up between
the Mayor of Madrid and the President of the Community (Regional Government) of
Madrid which only made sense if they were fighting for the succession to Rajoy
after he had lost. These two represent the liberal and conservative wings of
the party respectively, and Rajoy opted to support the conservative side, in
line with the extreme line of his campaign, thus committing the classic mistake
of oppositions of moving to a more extreme position. His position is uncertain,
even though the party big-wigs most closely associated with the deception of
four years ago about the bombs were sidelined in this election campaign.
The Socialists are obviously very happy and
I am pleased that they will continue in government. As a British Liberal who
wouldn’t touch Britain’s Stalinist
Warmongering and Labour Party with a bargepole in find myself quite happy with
what is in fact a Social Democrat party that has no hang-ups about running a
market economy. It is good that they have not achieved an overall majority. In the
past both PSOE and PP have has overall majorities in their second terms and it
has not proved successful. The introspection that results from needing no
external input to government policy and from having no internal debate about
it, leads to bad policy – as was proved conclusively in the UK by the way the
Labour Party walked blindly over the cliff of the Iraq war.
One banner outside the PSOE office on
Sunday night read ‘PSOE has won. The bishops have lost’. If only it were that
clear; just the other day the bishops elected a hard-liner as their chairman.
It is quite probable, however, that the curiously privileged position of the
Catholic Church in what is constitutionally a secular state will be approached
in this legislature.
The number of women in this Congress has
not changed; it is still about 36%. This is in spite of a law requiring parties
to put at least 40% of each sex on their lists. It is said that the parties
have regarded this as a quota for women; and also that the number one positions
are overwhelmingly held by men, which leads to a male predominance in the
winning positions. All of that may be true but it may also be true that the parties
have to some extent kept their lists more or less the same as last time and it
will take some time for women to establish themselves. The President of the Madrid
Community (see above) is a woman, as is the Deputy Prime Minister. IU is the
most right-on party but oddly when its leader was making his rather long-winded
speech (‘the two-party tsunami’) accepting responsibility for his party’s
debacle he appeared on the platform with fifteen or so of his party’s leaders,
only two of whom were women.
Much has been made in the British media of
the economic downturn. It is undeniable but has been exaggerated; to say that Spain
has the highest unemployment rate this century may be true, but it refers to
only the last seven years and the present rate is light years away from the
rates of the 1980s and 1990s. Likewise, the Spanish banking system is not on
the point of collapse, whatever the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ media may say. As I have
mentioned, they have done better than many others in the subprime mortgage
scandal, showing variations in results for 2006/7 ranging from ‑17.8% to 29.0%
(with one exception at 177.0%) while figures for international banks range from
‑48% to ‑11%.
And last but by no means least there is the
murder of Isaías Carrasco on Friday by ETA as he was setting out to work in a
motorway toll-booth. Campaigning was stopped but that was not a big matter;
with Saturday as a non-campaigning day for reflection there was only Friday
evening to go anyway and the effect was minimal. He had been a councillor in
the Basque town of Mondragón and when he lost his seat last year he opted not
to keep the bodyguard that he had had. Someone in the town knew that and told
ETA, who followed him checking up on his movements. His family refused to
receive the mayor of the town; she is from ANV, a Basque party that has taken
over from Batasuna, which has been made illegal because it is run by ETA, and
in line with her party policy she had refused to condemn the murder. The fact
that ANV was supported on the council by IU certainly cost IU a good number of
votes in the Basque Country and probably in the rest of Spain too. The bereaved family also
refused to meet the lehendakari (Basque
President) whose own PNV party members do not need bodyguards. The attitude of
the PNV to ETA reminds me very much of the Irish government’s attitude to the
IRA in the 1950s and 1960s. Of course they condemn violence, of course they
want a peaceful solution, but somehow they never seem to take the essential
political steps that would bring that solution any closer.
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