This cartoon by El Roto appears in today’s El País. It plays with the Spanish expression Ni hablar meaning No way and with Blair’s name.
Meanwhile, Germany once again has a Liberal Foreign Minister and the stars have resumed their natural places in the firmament above us. A prominent member of the FDP has said clearly that he would like to see someone from a smaller country as President. I have no doubt that Westerwelle himself doesn’t want Blair. Merkel herself will say nothing in advance but, as I have argued before, there is no apparent reason for her to favour Blair.
And, all of this must be seen in the context of the overall EU horse-trading. There is an agreement that the President will come from the EPP and that the Socialists will get the High Representative. The basis for this is that the Council and Parliament are dominated by the EPP, so it will make things a lot easier if the President (who chairs the Council and reports to the Parliament) is from the same party rather than imposing a cohabitation. This agreement rules Blair out automatically; it also, of course, gives the Socialists an excellent excuse to support another candidate without directly opposing someone from one of their own parties.
Felipe González (a Socialist anyway, and from a medium-sized country) is apparently not interested, and as he is a member of the Commission of Wise Men who are predicting the EU’s future this makes sense. Irish politics are complicated and I don’t know if Mary Robinson counts as EPP; she is not a Socialist or Liberal. Juncker and Balkenende are both solid EPP. That brings us to Belgium.
The Benelux countries have said that they want someone from a pro-European country, thereby ruling Blair out. But there is more to it than that. In 2004 the Belgian PM Guy Verhofstadt (a Liberal) was in line for President of the Commission. At the last minute Blair vetoed him and proposed Chris Patten. The result was a stand-off with Barroso coming through in the middle. The Belgians have not forgotten that and they want their revenge on Blair.
In this scenario Blair will not get the presidency and Miliband has ruled himself out not only explicitly but also by a speech in which he sets out the British view of limitless enlargement. The EU knows all about enlargement at the behest of a country that then vetoes the resources necessary to make the enlargement work! Anyway, it is clear that even with Lisbon there is a need for consolidation – though that will have to manage the accession of Croatia and also of Iceland, which looks as if it might be a difficult customer for its tiny size.
Meanwhile, the British Tories have got as far as saying that they would regard Blair’s appointment as a ‘hostile act’. Does that mean getting Biggles out of retirement to fly Lancaster bombers over Brussels? And what will happen when the Tories’ mental processes finally get round to working out that if the President of the Council isn’t Blair it will almost certainly be someone from the EPP, the very party that they have jilted so spectacularly? ‘Good morning Mr President. I am David Cameron, the new British Conservative Prime Minister.’ ‘Oh, hello, good to see you. Now please excuse me, but I have an urgent meeting with the Slovenian Minister of Culture.’
Recent Comments