Libya

So, just as in 1991 with the first Gulf War, a bunch of squabbling Arabs are causing problems for the rest of us. And just as in 1991 it will be the NATO countries that have to sort things out while the Arabs themselves sit on their backsides singing Onward Christian Soldiers. What about the Arab League? What about Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan? They’ve all got air forces, and organising an air-exclusion zone would seem an excellent opportunity for Turkey to exercise leadership in order to get its neo-Ottoman foreign policy off the ground. Literally.

And what will come of it all for the west? The possibilities are:

1. Gaddafi is defeated.

a. Libya ends up with a nice, cuddly, democratic, pro-western government with polite parties fighting democratic elections and ceding power to each other when they lose. The chances of this happening are approximately a zillion to one against* but if it were to come about there would be widespread moaning from the Arabs and from bien-pensant westerners racked with post-colonial guilt about occupation of Arab countries. ‘It’s all about stealing the Libyans’ oil,’ would be the cry.

b. Libya ends up with the rebels turning into an appallingly repressive and stinkingly corrupt pro-western government that hangs on to power at all costs. The chances of this happening are approximately half a zillion to one in favour and if it comes about there will be widespread moaning from the Arabs and from bien-pensant westerners racked with post-colonial guilt about occupation of Arab countries. ‘It’s all about stealing the Libyans’ oil,’ will be the cry, along with revulsion at the West supporting a disgusting government that it had foolishly lumbered itself with.

c. Libya ends up with the rebels turning into, or being taken over by, an appallingly repressive and stinkingly corrupt anti-western Islamist government that hangs on to power at all costs. The chances of this happening are also approximately half a zillion to one in favour and if it comes about it will delight bien-pensant westerners racked with post-colonial guilt about occupation of Arab countries (see Gaza). And there will still be room for cries of ‘It’s all about stealing the Libyans’ oil,’ because the Islamists will have to sell it to someone.

2. Gaddafi is not defeated.

a. Gaddafi takes Benghazi and regains control of the country – not an impossible scenario by any means. There is much egg on western faces. NATO and the UN are left looking stupid. There is widespread moaning from the Arabs and from bien-pensant westerners racked with post-colonial guilt about how the perfidious West has betrayed an Arab country, as if it is possible to betray someone with whom you have no particular bonds of loyalty.

b. Gaddafi fails to take Benghazi but keeps Tripoli. This the real nightmare scenario. The Western powers become stuck in an alliance with one side in a thoroughly nasty civil war with no prospect of a happy outcome even if they eventually win (see 1. above). It would lead to widespread moaning from the Arabs and from bien-pensant westerners racked with post-colonial guilt about how the perfidious West has not only betrayed an Arab country but is waging a war of occupation to gain control of Libya’s oil.

What the hell are we getting ourselves into? And what for? Libya is not, at least not yet, posing a strategic threat to the West so why on earth should we risk getting involved on one side of a civil war that is being fought along tribal lines?

*Democracy requires the existence of a strong middle class, something that Libya does not have. This requirement is, incidentally, the reason why aristocrats and socialists alike despise the middle class.